Nature, and arithmetic

[David Goodman <dgoodman@Princeton.EDU>]

Revenue with online site licenses. 
(relative figures only, my guess only.)

CURRENT SITUATION
Advertising		300
Individual subs.	300
Institutut. subs.	300
           total =	900


PUBLISHER'S APPARENT FEARS
Advertising            0
Individ. subs.         0
Institutional subs.  800
           total =   800

LIKELY IF FULL JOURNAL SUPPLIED 
Advertising        250  
Individ. Subs.     250  
Institut. subs     900
         total =  1400
 
LIKELY IF ONLY PARTIAL JOURNAL SUPPLIED
Advertising        300
Individ.           300
Institut.          310**
         total =   910


* Note that I allow for as much as 15% cancellation of indiv subscriptions
and the advertising revenue that depends on them. This is very
conservative and is a much greater amount of cancellation than experienced
by similar publications in similar situations.

** Assuming all institutions continue their print subs. and about 1% buy
the new licenses. Even if 10% buy them, it's still only Institut.=380,
total=980.

SUMMARY:

The best they could expect with their proposed restictive licenses is 980,
whereas if they kept to the usual full access terms it would be 1400.

-- 
David Goodman
Biology Librarian
and Co-chair, Electronic Journals Task force
Princeton University Library
Princeton, NJ 08544-0001
phone: 609-258-3235
fax: 609-258-2627
e-mail: dgoodman@princeton.edu