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SV: Future of the "subscription model?"
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- Subject: SV: Future of the "subscription model?"
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- Date: Thu, 3 Nov 2011 19:30:21 EDT
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Books is a difficult question, and I don't think we've seen where they are heading. The scientific monograph has had problems for decades; with readers getting used to e-books the time may be ripe for an increase in OA monograph publishing. In Norway, most monographs already come with some kind of APC; there isn't a viable market so the author has to find funding for parts of the costs. This means that in the humanities and social sciences the monographs are better mentally prepared for an open access author pay model, than are journals. That doesn't mean this has to happen, but I am optimistic - though not for some years - 3-5? If megajournals catch on, and the oa market share consequently sees a sharp rise, this means that institutions just have to find some mechanism for funding APCs. This, in turn, will reinforce the transition to oa, and will create funding possibilities for journals also outside the STM market. We already recognize that our publication fund probably has to be strengthened in order to meet increased demand from authors in coming years, much due to PLoS ONE and its clones. There definitely are some ifs in this ... Best, Jan Erik -----Opprinnelig melding----- From: firstname.lastname@example.org [mailto:email@example.com] From: Armbruster, Chris Date: 3. november 2011 02:52 Subject: RE: Future of the "subscription model?" Yes, you are right about counting articles instead of journal titles. An interesting further question is how to factor in the book 'volume' of publishing? >From the same large commercial publisher that has invested in >open access I have heard the expectation that OA journal >publishing will - within the decade - a) amount to no more than 10% of the volume (i.e. remain a niche product for research funders willing to pony up the money) and/or b) that it will become a major business model with about 30% of market share in journal publishing. Certainly, the launch of 'megajournals' signals that most publishers do not want to miss out if b) happens. Only, even if b) happens, then more than half the journal market would still based on subscriptions, plus all the books.... Best, Chris ________________________________________ From: firstname.lastname@example.org [email@example.com] On Behalf Of firstname.lastname@example.org [email@example.com] Sent: 02 November 2011 02:29 To: firstname.lastname@example.org Subject: Re: Future of the "subscription model?" Chris, I do believe that the future holds all of your alternatives but a), I cannot imagine that subscription will survive as the major business model. I does, of course, depend on how you count. You yourself suggest setting a threshold of 25 % of journals as an indicator of whether oa publishing has become a large-scale business model. But is the number of journals or publishers the interesting number? In my opinion, no. The interesting number is the number of articles, which has a rather skewed distribution between journals. And the largest journal in terms of articles, is oa - PLoS ONE. With the number of prospective mega-journals that recently have launched you'd need less than 1 % of journals to contain more than 25 % of all articles - if they all succeed and grow to the same size as PLoS ONE. Your alternative d) seems very interesting, with mega-journals the journal isn't a navigational aid anymore. (Actually, it isn't a journal anymore, either - it is a database or repository of articles.) If all oa content is published with a CC BY license, third parties - including present publishers - can establish navigational and quality indicating services on top of the journals. The only sure answer is that a lot will happen in the coming three to five years - probably. :-) Best, Jan Erik Frantsvag Open Access adviser The University Library of Tromso e-mail email@example.com http://www.ub.uit.no/munin/ http://www.ub.uit.no/baser/septentrio/ http://www2.uit.no/ansatte/jan.e.frantsvag Publications: http://tinyurl.com/33dwnun