Re: Subscription to Open Access Transition

["Sally Morris \(ALPSP\)" <sally.morris@alpsp.org>]

What is being ignored is the equally valid evidence about downloads

Sally Morris, Chief Executive
Association of Learned and Professional Society Publishers
Email:  sally.morris@alpsp.org

----- Original Message -----
From: "David Prosser" <david.prosser@bodley.ox.ac.uk>
To: <liblicense-l@lists.yale.edu>
Sent: Wednesday, July 26, 2006 12:30 AM
Subject: RE: Subscription to Open Access Transition

> Sally, The reason that physics is 'trotted' out is because it 
> is a piece of evidence and evidence trumps theoretical 
> concerns. Is there one piece of evidence that has been made 
> public that can attribute any of the 3-5% annual decline in 
> subscriptions over the past 20 years to self-archiving?  I 
> don't think there is.
>
> Naturally we can all construct scenarios in which the market 
> will change and publishers have every right to do so.  (I would 
> say that small publishers should be doing more of it.)  But to 
> date the only evidence we have of the effect of self-archiving 
> on subscription is that there is no effect.  Until that changes 
> you shouldn't be surprised that people will bring up physics to 
> counter claims that the sky is falling down.
>
> David C Prosser PhD
> Director
> SPARC Europe
> E-mail:  david.prosser@bodley.ox.ac.uk
>
> -----Original Message-----
> [mailto:owner-liblicense-l@lists.yale.edu] On Behalf Of Sally Morris
> (ALPSP)
> Sent: 24 July 2006 22:19
> To: liblicense-l@lists.yale.edu
> Subject: Re: Subscription to Open Access Transition
>
> I do wish people would stop trotting out physics as an example
> that self archiving does not lead to cancellations.  While it has
> not done so yet, some physics and mathematics publishers who have
> journals replicated more or less in their entirety in arXiv have
> made no secret of their concerns, arising from the significant
> drop in downloads on the publisher's site. Coupled with evidence
> from surveys of librarians that they would, under certain
> circumstances, consider cancellation and that usage is an
> increasingly significant factor, this adds up to a potentially
> alarming scenario.  Please can we stop pretending it isn't so?
>
> Sally Morris, Chief Executive
> Association of Learned and Professional Society Publishers
> Email:  sally.morris@alpsp.org