More accurate data for calculating cost per article

[Phil Davis <pmd8@cornell.edu>]

Dear Liblicense and apologies for cross-posting

I have been alerted that one of the assumptions used in calculating a cost
per article for ARL institutions is greatly exaggerated.  In the model, I
estimated that the indexing of scholarly articles in ISI's Web of Science
may be 92% (derived from a logarithmic model).  According to Marie McVeigh
from ISI, this number is closer to 45%.  The effect of this change,
keeping all other assumptions the same...

o 105 of the 113 ARL institutions would find a producer-pays model more
 expensive
o 7 would find it about the same
o 1 would find it less expensive.

The median cost per article in the subscription model for all ARL
institutions is $1,054.  For Cornell it is $663.

Quote from Marie McVeigh, ISI

"With no data under this assumption save that journal selection is
independent of number of articles, I would guess that ISI's coverage is
representative of the population as a whole.  This would make 92% an
overestimate of the proportion of indexed articles compared to all
articles.  If ISI's coverage is, indeed, repesentative, then the
percentage of covered articles compared to all articles would be closer to
45%."

--Phil Davis